China’s Macroeconomy in 2023

China’s economy experienced a bumpy journey in 2023, with fluctuations in each quarter. In the first quarter, GDP growth reached 4.5 percent, exceeding market expectations and marking a strong start to an economic recovery following the three-year COVID-19 prevention and control policy regime. In the second quarter, it grew by 6.3 percent, which, considering the … more

The Dragon and the Fate of China

In 1988, a year of the dragon, China’s Central Television aired a six-part documentary entitled River Elegy 河殤 that caused heated debates among Chinese intellectuals and within the Communist Party. The show’s creators presented a damning critique of Chinese culture, which they saw as agriculture-based and inward-looking compared to the ‘ocean-based’ civilisations of the West. … more

The Mystery of Xi’s Disappearing Officials

The disappearance of former state councilor and foreign minister Qin Gang 秦刚 in June 2023, and the former defense minister General Li Shangfu 李尚福 in August, raises questions about the supreme leader Xi Jinping’s personnel management. A score of senior officers from the Rocket Force and departments in charge of weapons procurement also got the … more

Are the Nongguan Coming? The Evolution of the Rural Comprehensive Administrative Enforcement Team in China’s Rural Governance

In April 2023, videos featuring uniformed rural enforcement teams known as nongguan 农管 forcefully confiscating farmers’ livestock or taking down trees went viral on Chinese social media. ‘The nongguan are coming!’ 农管来了 became a trending topic, often followed by the phrase ‘the peasants are panicking’ 农民慌了. Nongguan is the unofficial name for the rural comprehensive … more

China’s Local Government Debt: Fallout from a Perfect Storm

The hidden debt of China’s local governments, which is held by entities called Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs), has rattled financial markets. Now some worry that it could threaten the entire economy. While there is no official data, one estimate of LGFVs debt puts it at 59 trillion yuan (US$8.25 trillion) at the end of … more

Taiwan’s South China Sea

In Nanjing in 1946, the government of the Republic of China (ROC), in the midst of a civil war, decided to delineate the territory of the Republic so that it could reconstruct the country after the expected successful conclusion of the war against the Communists. ROC officials studied old documents and records that suggested the … more

When Does China Terminate Sanctions? Lessons From the Case of Australian Barley

Under what conditions does China terminate politically motivated barriers to trade? In August 2023, China announced it would remove tariffs on Australian barley that were imposed amid bilateral tensions in May 2020. The removal was widely celebrated for enabling the resumption of a trade that had been worth up to US$1 billion annually. Barley was one … more